No, I am not looking for a building to jump off of. I just don't think that the power is going to stay on much longer. We are getting some rain now that is starting to pick up. While my Internet connection is underground, the power for my routers and goodies runs in through conventional crap on the pole. Here is the latest from the National Weather Service.



As things stand, the fit will hit the shan in downtown Houston around midnight.

Thank god for weather underground. Here is Doctor Jeff's best guesses. . . . .



What we're hearing is that the track depicted above is going to be close to the actual track and the eye will be crossing on to land between 1:30 and 2:00 AM tomorrow.

(banging head on computer desk)

Well, now I've gone and done it. Poo pooed Hurricane Ike. Its now forecast to come ashore at Galveston Bay and follow up the I45 corridor. If I didn't know better, I'd swear this storm is homing in on my house. Here is the latest track information as I blog.





There are two problems right now. For starters, this thing is HUGE! Around two hundred miles across. The second problem is that is slow moving. Like a bad Thanksgiving parade, it will take a long time for the tail end to get through. The tropical storm force winds (gusting to Cat 1 hurricane winds) are expected to come through my par tof the world between 3AM and 6AM US CST. Stay tuned.

407 PM - I don't know how much longer we'll be able to keep updating the live blog due to the real expectation that the power will go off for a protracted period of time. I do know that the amount of information we're being inundated with is staggering. As of right now, here is the situation (copyright weather underground)



As you can see, the category 2 outer bands are hitting the Galveston Island full on. The locals are saying its the worst they've ever seen. As was the case during Rita, the local stores are rapidly running out of supplies and closing. Have a look at the bread isle at the local Walmart.



The locals are taking this seriously. Thank god for Dinty Moore.

Well, I watched Steve Jobs hawking the new additions to the Ipod line. Queue the yawn. Judging from the stock performance of late, he had to do something. On top of everything going on, Steve announced that iTunes now has a genius feature that does playlists. Uhhhhhhh. It sucks, OK? I downloaded the update and tried it. All the so-called genius feature does is show you what songs would make a cool play list in your library. By some odd coincidence, its all songs you have to buy from the iTunes store. nice try, Steve.

(sigh) Another Hurricane is heading our way. Ike. After Rita being touted as such a "bad girl", (yeah a weather channel guy actually said that) I can't help but be a little skeptical.

Queue the Nation Weather Service gibberish. . .

000
WTNT44 KNHC 102050
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008


THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT IKE HAS TWO WELL-DEFINED
WIND MAXIMA OF ROUGHLY EQUAL STRENGTH. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 93 KT WERE FOUND IN A BAND ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF THE CENTER. A
DROPSONDE WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE CENTER REPORTED LOW-LAYER MEAN
WINDS OF 97 KT...WHICH CORRESPOND TO 82 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE
ADVISORY WINDS ARE SET TO 85 KT ON THIS BASIS. THE LARGE EXPANSE
OF HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPLAINS THE APPARENT
MISMATCH BETWEEN THE PEAK WINDS AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.
CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...INCLUDING LIGHT SHEAR AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE OTHER
HAND...RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFTS IN THE TRACK NOW SUGGEST THAT IKE
MAY ENCOUNTER A COOL EDDY IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND MISS A WARM EDDY.
NEVERTHELESS...ALL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NOW MAKES IKE A MAJOR
HURRICANE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHER THAN INTERNAL EYEWALL DYNAMICS...WHICH
ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE...I SEE
NO REASON WHY IKE SHOULD WEAKEN APPRECIABLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED. IKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE TRACK BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL IKE APPROACHES A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO
COVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IN TWO DAYS. ALL GUIDANCE TURNS
IKE NORTHWARD TO VARYING DEGREES WITHIN A DAY OR SO OF PROJECTED
LANDFALL. THERE HAS BEEN A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE...MOST NOTABLY THE GFDL AND GFS. IT IS TO BE EXPECTED
THAT SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO GUIDANCE FLIP
FLOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. IKE IS A VERY
LARGE HURRICANE...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE AS
IT CROSSES THE GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER
CROSSES THE COAST...THE EFFECTS OF IKE WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE
AREA.

OK. So here is where the pointy headed weather prognosticators are saying he"ll (Ike) go.





In other words, it is forecast to come ashore somewhere in the Brownsville area. There's already a "voluntary" evacuation in effect that is expected to go mandatory at any time. We're keeping a close eye, but after Hannah, I'm not going to bust a gasket just yet.